I heard an interesting stat the other day about Red Sox ace Daisuke Matsuzaka, about the terrible year he’s been having after a phenomenal 2008. The radio jock was saying this guy hasn’t been the same since pitching the World Baseball Classic in March.
Seattle’s own Ichiro Suzuki, normally a terribly slow starter, also played in the classic and started hitting right away in 2009. Odd.
It got me thinking how other players are affected (if they are at all) by playing in so many pre-season, big-time games.
While MLB guys play their share of spring training games, it’s not exactly strenuous, For a few weeks they play every other day, and even then just a few innings at a time, while they tweak their bodies for the rigors of a 162-game season.
But throw in the World Classic, and that has players throwing, hitting and fielding an additional 6-10 games or so — high intensity, high-caliber contests, plus any preliminary contests — and it may have an adverse affect for some players.
Let’s take a look at some WBC players and how they’re faring this year versus how they have fared on average through June in 2006-2008. "Injured" means the player is out of action now. "DL" means the player has spent some time on the disabled list while "Minors" means they're stuck in AAA Pawtucket or someplace similarly obscure.
Pitchers
Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston (injured) 2006-08: 6-2 3.58 ERA 57 Ks 27 walks .225 average against 2009: 1-5 8.23 ERA 34 Ks 18 walks .378 average against
Felix Hernandez, Seattle 2006-08: 6-5 3.95 ERA 86 Ks 29 walks .259 average against 2009: 8-3 2.54 ERA 107 Ks 32 walks .233 average against
Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati (injured) 2006-08: 3-1 2.08 ERA 37 Ks 16 walks .203 average against 2009: 4-2 4.35 ERA 47 Ks 32 walks .191 average against
Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs 2006-08: 8-5 4.17 ERA 90 Ks 36 walks .242 average against 2009: 7-6 3.35 ERA 88 Ks 23 walks .242 average against
Roy Oswalt, Houston 2006-08: 7-6 3.77 ERA 84 Ks 31 walks .276 average against 2009: 4-4 4.02 ERA 83 Ks 30 walks .267 average against
Sidney Ponson, Kansas City (injured) 2006-08: 4-3 4.86 ERA 26 Ks 19 walks .316 average against 2009: 1-5 7.27 ERA 24 Ks 17 walks .328 average against
Javier Vasquez, Atlanta 2006-08: 6-5 4.47 ERA 91 Ks 27 walks .261 average against 2009: 5-7 3.04 ERA 125 Ks 23 walks .227 average against
Ian Snell, Pittsburgh (minors) 2006-08: 5-6 4.45 ERA 74 Ks 38 walks .276 average against 2009: 2-8 5.36 ERA 52 Ks 44 walks .282 average against
Mark DiFelice, Milwaukee 2008: 1-0 2.84 ERA 20 Ks 4 walks .230 average against 2009: 4-0 1.78 ERA 28 Ks 5 walks .189 average against
Carlos Silva, Seattle (injured) 2006-08: 5-8 5.37 ERA 38 Ks 16 walks .297 average against 2009: 1-3 8.48 ERA 10 Ks 9 walks .319 average against
At this cursory glance it seems that the several pitchers have had dramatic downturns in productions, with just a couple of batters seeing major slumps or injuries. Matsuzaka, Ponson, Snell and Silva each have had problems and/or injuries, while most others (Oswalt, Lilly, Vasquez) seem to be pitching about the same.
Only Felix Hernandez is pitching significantly better than in previous April-June stretches.
Most of the hitters sampled are doing as well or better, particularly Votto, Morneau and Ichiro. Bay, Beltran and Dunn are hitting about the same and except for batting average, Lopez is too. Johjima has been hampered by injuries — possibly attributable to the WBC — while Ivan Rodriguez’s numbers are down slightly. Only Rollins’ numbers are WAY down, and it’s hard to tell what that’s all about, anyway.
Frankly, there isn’t a big enough sample size to make a clear-cut case, but this cursory look indicates to me the WBC wears on pitchers more than hitters. If I were a manager, I’d try to keep my pitchers off the field for the WBC.
That’s not to say we should disregard the series; it’s closer to a “World” Series than what we like to call the World Series. I’d like to see MLB cut down the number of games during those years, perhaps back to the old standard of 154. I know it won’t happen; too much money is tied up in those 162 games — just a thought.