Did the World Baseball Classic kill pitchers' arms?

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Published on Wed, Jul 1, 2009 by Mike Dashiell, Gazette sports editor

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I heard an interesting stat the other day about Red Sox ace Daisuke Matsuzaka, about the terrible year he’s been having after a phenomenal 2008. The radio jock was saying this guy hasn’t been the same since pitching the World Baseball Classic in March.

Seattle’s own Ichiro Suzuki, normally a terribly slow starter, also played in the classic and started hitting right away in 2009. Odd.

It got me thinking how other players are affected (if they are at all) by playing in so many pre-season, big-time games.

While MLB guys play their share of spring training games, it’s not exactly strenuous, For a few weeks they play every other day, and even then just a few innings at a time, while they tweak their bodies for the rigors of a 162-game season.

But throw in the World Classic, and that has players throwing, hitting and fielding an additional 6-10 games or so — high intensity, high-caliber contests, plus any preliminary contests — and it may have an adverse affect for some players.

Let’s take a look at some WBC players and how they’re faring this year versus how they have fared on average through June in 2006-2008. "Injured" means the player is out of action now. "DL" means the player has spent some time on the disabled list while "Minors" means they're stuck in AAA Pawtucket or someplace similarly obscure.

Pitchers

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston (injured)
2006-08: 6-2    3.58 ERA      57 Ks    27 walks    .225 average against
     2009: 1-5    8.23 ERA      34 Ks    18 walks    .378 average against

Felix Hernandez, Seattle
2006-08: 6-5    3.95 ERA      86 Ks    29 walks    .259 average against
     2009: 8-3    2.54 ERA    107 Ks    32 walks    .233 average against

Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati (injured)
2006-08: 3-1    2.08 ERA      37 Ks    16 walks    .203 average against
     2009: 4-2    4.35 ERA      47 Ks    32 walks    .191 average against

Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs
2006-08: 8-5    4.17 ERA      90 Ks    36 walks    .242 average against
     2009: 7-6    3.35 ERA      88 Ks    23 walks    .242 average against

Roy Oswalt, Houston
2006-08: 7-6    3.77 ERA      84 Ks    31 walks    .276 average against
     2009: 4-4    4.02 ERA      83 Ks    30 walks    .267 average against

Sidney Ponson, Kansas City (injured)
2006-08: 4-3    4.86 ERA      26 Ks    19 walks    .316 average against
     2009: 1-5    7.27 ERA      24 Ks    17 walks    .328 average against

Javier Vasquez, Atlanta
2006-08: 6-5    4.47 ERA      91 Ks    27 walks    .261 average against
     2009: 5-7    3.04 ERA    125 Ks    23 walks    .227 average against

Ian Snell, Pittsburgh (minors)
2006-08: 5-6    4.45 ERA      74 Ks    38 walks    .276 average against
     2009: 2-8    5.36 ERA      52 Ks    44 walks    .282 average against

Mark DiFelice, Milwaukee
     2008: 1-0    2.84 ERA      20 Ks      4 walks    .230 average against
     2009: 4-0    1.78 ERA      28 Ks      5 walks    .189 average against

Carlos Silva, Seattle (injured)
2006-08: 5-8    5.37 ERA      38 Ks    16 walks    .297 average against
     2009: 1-3    8.48 ERA      10 Ks      9 walks    .319 average against

Batters

Joey Votto, Cincinnati (DL)
2006-08: .279 BA      4 HR    13 RBIs    .346 OBP    .478 SLG
     2009: .351 BA      9 HR    37 RBIs    .451 OBP    .604 SLG

Jason Bay, Boston
2006-08: .278 BA    16 HR    50 RBIs    .375 OBP    .508 SLG
     2009: .267 BA    19 HR    69 RBIs    .376 OBP    .545 SLG

Ivan Rodriguez, Houston
2006-08: .286 BA      6 HR    35 RBIs    .312 OBP    .430 SLG
     2009: .249 BA      7 HR    30 RBIs    .283 OBP    .406 SLG

Justin Morneau, Minnesota
2006-08: .293 BA    17 HR    63 RBIs    .356 OBP    .529 SLG
     2009: .313 BA    19 HR    64 RBIs    .394 OBP    .582 SLG

Carlos Beltran, New York Mets (injured)
2006-08: .278 BA    16 HR    55 RBIs    .375 OBP    .538 SLG
     2009: .336 BA      8 HR    40 RBIs    .425 OBP    .527 SLG

Jose Lopez, Seattle
2006-08: .288 BA      7 HR    47 RBIs    .318 OBP    .434 SLG
     2009: .259 BA    10 HR    46 RBIs    .288 OBP    .422 SLG

Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia
2006-08: .269 BA      9 HR    35 RBIs    .319 OBP    .456 SLG
     2009: .207 BA      6 HR    27 RBIs    .250 OBP    .322 SLG

Kenji Johjima, Seattle (DL)
2006-08: .277 BA      7 HR    31 RBIs    .307 OBP    .428 SLG
     2009: .250 BA      3 HR    11 RBIs    .272 OBP    .380 SLG

Adam Dunn, Washington
2006-08: .240 BA    23 HR    51 RBIs    .371 OBP    .545 SLG
     2009: .262 BA    20 HR    56 RBIs    .396 OBP    .532 SLG

Ichiro, Seattle
2006-08: .336 BA      4 HR    29 RBIs    .388 OBP    .425 SLG
     2009: .373 BA      6 HR    18 RBIs    .405 OBP    .500 SLG



At this cursory glance it seems that the several pitchers have had dramatic downturns in productions, with just a couple of batters seeing major slumps or injuries. Matsuzaka, Ponson, Snell and Silva each have had problems and/or injuries, while most others (Oswalt, Lilly, Vasquez) seem to be pitching about the same.

Only Felix Hernandez is pitching significantly better than in previous April-June stretches.

Most of the hitters sampled are doing as well or better, particularly Votto, Morneau and Ichiro. Bay, Beltran and Dunn are hitting about the same and except for batting average, Lopez is too. Johjima has been hampered by injuries — possibly attributable to the WBC — while Ivan Rodriguez’s numbers are down slightly. Only Rollins’ numbers are WAY down, and it’s hard to tell what that’s all about, anyway.

Frankly, there isn’t a big enough sample size to make a clear-cut case, but this cursory look indicates to me the WBC wears on pitchers more than hitters. If I were a manager, I’d try to keep my pitchers off the field for the WBC.

That’s not to say we should disregard the series; it’s closer to a “World” Series than what we like to call the World Series. I’d like to see MLB cut down the number of games during those years, perhaps back to the old standard of 154. I know it won’t happen; too much money is tied up in those 162 games — just a thought.


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